Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Weekly Weather Outlook (August 15-22, 2011)

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Outlook for: Monday–Sunday August 15 – 22, 2011

Feature(s) of Interest: The features of interest for this working week and the upcoming weekend will be the movement and evolution of a vigorous TW just east of the Lesser Antilles or along 55 West, which was designated earlier as Invest 93-L. Satellite images this morning indicate that intense convection has flared up with this disturbance and NHC is giving it a low (10%) chance of developing into a TS during the next 48 hours as it tracks westwards at 15/20 mph (See Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). The models project this system to continue on a general westward track into the western Caribbean by Saturday. Both the NAM and the NOGAPS models insist on developing Invest 93-L into a TC when it reaches the western Caribbean south or SW of Jamaica by Thursday. The GFS and the European models keep this system as a TW wave right through into the western Caribbean (See Figs. 3, 4 & 5 for the model projection of Invest 93-L).

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