Thursday, July 18, 2024

Weekly Weather Outlook for Belize: May 28 – June 4

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Feature(s) of Interest:

Two systems were responsible for the outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms last week and over the weekend. The first was a persistent low pressure area over and just offshore Belize that eventually drifted NE towards Cuba by late Wednesday. While, in the upper atmosphere, a westward drifting short-wave trough moved over Belize on Sunday and its axis now extends from NW Bahamas south-westward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and central Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. This feature is forecast to continue its westwards displacement as an upper anticyclone migrates westward over northern Central America by Thursday of this week.

A weak tropical wave will make its way westward over the central and western Caribbean this week, reaching the Yucatan and Belize coasts by late Wednesday. Otherwise, the airflow in the NW Caribbean will become drier in a weak SE’ly current as we approach the weekend. Showers may likely be on the increase once again on Sunday afternoon and Monday.

Daily rainfall accumulations will be in the range of 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch over north-western and northern Belize on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, with amounts of 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch in the higher terrain and some parts of the coast. Daily accumulations will decrease on Thursday through most of the weekend over the country as the airflow becomes drier and more stable. We can expect daily totals of 0.10-0.25 of an inch especially in the N and NW regions.

GOES IR Satellite picture for 4:45 am, Monday, May 28, 2012, showing a large cluster of thunderstorms over and just south of Jamaica. Scattered convection noted over northern and southern Belize.
Fig. 1b is the Surface map for 3:00 am, May 28, 2012, showing tropical storm Beryl weakening as it moves over land over northern Florida

Tropical Cyclone Outlook:

The models are not forecasting any tropical cyclone formation over the Caribbean during the next five days.

NHC 72-hour forecast surface map valid for 6:00 pm Thursday, May 31, 2012 showing weak tropical wave approaching Yucatan and northern Belize
84-hour rainfall projection of the GFS model, valid for 6:00 am Thursday, May 31, 2012 showing previous 24-hour rainfall accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches over northern and north-western Belize
GFS 850 mb (5,000ft) level vorticity projection valid for 12:00 pm Friday, June 1, 2012 showing drier SE’ly airflow over Belize, and the trajectory of Tropical Storm Beryl heading on a NE’ly direction after exiting the Alabama coast

 

Belize Five-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry…

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sunday
May 28, 2012 May 29, 2012 May 30, 2012 May 31, 2012 June 1, 2012 June 2, 2012 June 3, 2012
Cloudy with sunny spells. A few showers & thunderstorms.

Rainfall:

0.25-0.50 of-an-inch

Sunny with cloudy spells. A few showers & thunderstorms.

Rainfall:

0.25-0.50 of-an-inch

Sunny with cloudy spells. Few moderate showers.

Rainfall: 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch

Sunny with cloudy spells. Few moderate showers.

Rainfall:

0.25-0.50 inch

Mostly sunny with isolated showers.

Rainfall:

0.10-0.25 of-an- inch

Mostly sunny with isolated showers.

Rainfall:

0.10-0.25 of-an-inch

Sunny with cloudy spells. Few moderate showers.

Rainfall:

0.25-0.50 inch

Monday
May 28, 2012
RFrutos, Agrometeorologist/Hydrologist

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